Ukraine Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011

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  • Dallas, TX (1888PressRelease) August 24, 2011 - The latest Ukraine Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 5.24% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while providing just 0.54% of supply.

    CEE regional oil use of 5.4mn b/d in 2001 rose to an estimated 6.1mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.9mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8. 9mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 13.8mn b/d in 2010. It is set to rise to 15.1mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.5mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 7.7mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.1mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the most important exporter.

    In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 637bcm, with demand of 737bcm targeted for 2015, representing 15.8% growth. Production of an estimated 773bcm in 2010 should reach 963bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 136bcm in 2010 to 226bcm by the end of the period. Ukraine's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 7.48%, while its share of production is put at 2.59%. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 7.35%, with the country accounting for 2.08% of supply.

    Reasonable and consistent growth in oil and gas market consumption seems likely, averaging up to 3.0% per annum. This suggests that the country will be consuming around 363,000b/d of oil by 2015. With oil and liquids production likely to slip closer to 81,000b/d, Ukraine will require imports of at least 282,000b/d by 2015. BMI forecasts that gas demand will rise from an estimated 47.7bcm in 2010 to 54.2bcm by 2015. Domestic production, largely in the hands of state-owned Naftogaz Ukrainy but with some international oil company (IOC) involvement, should also increase over the near term, from an estimated 20bcm in 2010 to at least 22bcm in 2011-2012.

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    Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast a fall in Ukraine oil and gas liquids production of 33.8%, with volumes falling steadily from the estimated 2010 level of 95,000b/d to 63,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 33.7%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 421,000b/d by 2020. Gas production should peak at around 22bcm in 2011-2012, then fall to 16bcm by 2020. Gas imports are set to reach 45bcm by 2020.

    Ukraine holds seventh place in BMI's composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country now holds 14th place, behind the Czech Republic and ahead only of Slovenia, in BMI's updated upstream ratings, thanks to only modest hydrocarbons resources. Its gas reserves and favourable licensing regime account for much of the upstream score, but country risk factors and privatisation activity are less impressive. Ukraine arguably has the potential to overtake the Czech Republic, and is at little risk from Slovenia below. Ukraine is in the upper half of the league table in BMI's downstream ratings, claiming fourth place below Poland, Russia and Turkey. There are a few high scores, but progress further up the rankings is unlikely. There are good scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, retail site intensity and population. Romania is four points below it in the regional rankings, so Ukraine should be at little immediate risk.

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