BMI India Retail Report Q4 2011

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  • Dallas, TX (1888PressRelease) August 12, 2011 - The Q411 BMI India Retail Report forecasts that total retail sales will grow from INR19.74trn (US$411.28bn) in 2011 to INR30.96trn (US$804.06bn) by 2015. Strong underlying economic growth, population expansion, the increasing wealth of individuals and the rapid construction of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth.

    As well as an expanding middle and upper class consumer base, there will also be opportunities in India's second- and third-tier cities. The greater availability of personal credit and a growing vehicle population providing improved mobility also contribute to a trend of 11.9% annual retail sales growth. Tourism is also a major contributor to the Indian retail sector. Tourist arrivals rose by 8% in 2010 to 5.40mn, from 4.99mn in 2009. Foreign exchange earnings from tourism during 2010 were US$13.24bn, up 9.55% from US$12.08bn the year before.

    India's nominal GDP is forecast at US$1.9trn in 2011. Average annual GDP growth of 7.9% is predicted by BMI through to 2015. With the population expected to increase from 1.19bn in 2011 to 1.25bn by 2015, GDP per capita is forecast to rise 86.5% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$3,050. The growth in the overall retail market will be driven largely by the explosion in the organised retail sector. Domestic retailers such as Reliance Retail and Pantaloon Retail continue to invest heavily in increasing their store networks and improving in-store offerings, and the impact they have on growth will be boosted by the arrival of expansion-oriented multinationals.

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    Reliance Retail was looking to invest up to INR1.5bn (US$33mn) in 150 new stores by March 2011, adding to its existing 1,050-store network. CEO Bijou Kurien said: 'Now that the recession is over, several new and stalled projects will get started. We would focus on both value retail as well as specialty, non-food retail stores.' Reliance recently opened its 103rd Vision Express optical outlet in India in partnership with GrandVision.
    Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales in India are expected to undergo enormous growth over the forecast period. BMI predicts that sales through MGR outlets will increase by 126% to reach US$59.8bn by 2015.

    This is a consequence of India's dramatic, rapid shift from small independent retailers to large, modern outlets, although it must also be noted that this growth is forecast to come from a very low starting point. BMI forecasts consumer electronic sales at US$29.44bn in 2011, with over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales at US$3.10bn. The former sub-sector is expected to show growth of 78.5% between 2011 and 2015, reaching US$52.55bn, with projected double-digit growth of key products such as notebooks, mobile handsets and TVs. OTC pharmaceuticals, meanwhile, should increase by 88.1% throughout the forecast period, to reach US$5.84bn.

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    Automotive sales are forecast to increase from 4.07mn units in 2011 to 5.89mn units by 2015, an increase of 44.4%, with the premium segment in particular benefiting from higher levels of personal wealth. Domestic vehicle sales surged by a phenomenal 45.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in October 2010, driven by a 22.0% increase in commercial credit (the fastest pace since 2008).

    Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2011 are a forecast US$3.13trn. China and India are predicted to account for nearly 91% of regional retail sales in 2011, and by 2015 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2011-2015 is forecast by BMI at 71.6%, an annual average 14.4%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. India's forecast market share of 13.2% in 2011 is expected to increase to 15.0% by 2015.

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