Financial Markets Focusing Greece and Spain - Shaw Capital Management Newsletter

If the latest measures do succeed in reducing the fiscal deficit to manageable levels without aborting the economic recovery, and if the problems affecting the euro continue, or become even more serious, then sterling may well maintain current levels or even appreciate further. End Quote

(1888PressRelease) February 06, 2011 - The situation in Greece and in Spain has obviously caused great concern in London. But the Bank is also aware of the risks as a time when the economy is still in a very fragile state, and of the need to compensate for the fiscal retrenchment by maintaining a supportive monetary policy, and low short-term interest rates. There are therefore reasons for concern about the prospects for sterling. If the latest measures do succeed in reducing the fiscal deficit to manageable levels without aborting the economic recovery, and if the problems affecting the euro continue, or become even more serious, then sterling may well maintain current levels or even appreciate further.

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But the situation is very uncertain, and the odds do seem to favour a further period of weakness until the effects of the latest government measures can be more accurately assessed.

The yen has weakened slightly over the past month as the improvement in market sentiment has increased
the "risk appetite" of investors for the equity markets, and for commodity-related currencies.

The economic background in Japan has continued to improve, helped by the export performance; but there are still doubts about whether this improvement can be sustained, and these doubts have been increased by the latest announcement by the new prime minister that the main priority of his government will be a reduction in the huge fiscal deficit, rather than the promotion of fresh measures to accelerate the growth rate.

There is also a further uncertainty created by the decision by the Chinese authorities to adopt a "more flexible" policy on the renminbi that presumably means that it will be allowed to appreciate slightly faster. It is not clear what the consequences of this move will be; but overall it seems likely that conditions elsewhere, especially those affecting the euro, and some disappointment with "risky" investments in global markets, will continue to provide some stability to the Japanese currency.

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