(1888PressRelease)
April 03, 2007 - Regardless of the claims made by the principal fighters in the big electoral battle being fought in Uttar Pradesh, the country's most populous state that sends the largest number of members to the Lok Sabha, a prospect of instability continues to haunt the sharply divided electorate. It would be a miracle if any party secures a majority on its own, and hence, government formation will depend on the extent of support the principal winner is able to garner from other parties and on defections, as happened in 2002 and thereafter. Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav has by now perfected the art of inducting defections from rival parties and carried on despite the Supreme Court judgment disqualifying a chunk of his supporters who had defected from the BSP. He even managed to lure supporters from the supposedly disciplined BJP.
The secular and anti-Bharatiya Janata Party forces are, as usual, in disarray, with former Prime Minister and "Mandalist" V. P. Singh's "fourth front" hopeful of cutting into the votes of the Samajwadi Party, whose government he describes as corrupt and venal, and the Bahujan Samaj Party, though he may not draw much from a debilitated Congress Party, still struggling to find its feet. The situation is expected to marginally benefit the BJP, which has witnessed a surge of sorts after its victory in the recent Uttrakhand and Punjab Assembly elections, where the Congress lost power due to a variety of reasons.
Judging from the level of mutual recrimination, the contesting parties characterize each other as untouchable. But, the unprincipled politics played by the parties in UP during the recent past, suggests today's enemies will become tomorrows bosom friends. They will not hesitate to take shelter behind lofty democratic principles and proclaim the need to keep out communal forces in order to forge another unprincipled alliance to capture power. The familiar alibis for digression from principles – need of political stability and strengthening the parliamentary system and, lastly, avoiding a fresh election will be trotted out, further deepening the caste and ethnic divide.
Talking, first, of the Congress Party, the weakest among the players, its leadership has made a last ditch effort to save itself by harnessing Rahul Gandhi in the task of mobilizing votes. This follows the realisation after the Punjab and Uttaranchal elections, that the voters have started to turn away from it due to failure on the organizational and the price fronts and to deliver on the promises made. During the past five years, practically noting has been done to re-establish the party's base in the State from where it was uprooted and was unable to re-establish itself as a credible political player, despite its being in power at the Centre with the help of other secular parties.
The Congress Party starts with a vote base of 9 per cent and 25 seats in the 2002 Assembly elections and, under the combined assault of other parties, has not been able to retrieve lost ground, despite the efforts of Mr. Salman Khurshid. No effort was made to project a new and dynamic leadership down to the district and village levels and to create a statewide cadre of dedicated grass-root workers. The ground lost to casteist and communal forces was given up for good. The last minute fire-fighting operation is unlikely to achieve miracles. Though Rahul Gandhi's road shows are largely attended, the cadres required to transport support to the ballot box is still lacking. The Party might gain marginally but will continue as a minor player.
The ruling Samajwadi Party, which cornered 25.4 per cent of votes and 143 seats on the 2002 elections, does not seem to be in a particularly bad shape, despite the charges of corruption leveled against it and its being seen as furthering the interests of a particular business house through a broker masquerading as a caste leader, though his only qualification is his ability to raise funds from interested players and Mulayam-regime beneficiaries to keep the SP machine well oiled. He has also enlisted the services of a film star, whose entire family is campaigning for him and whose pro-Mulayam posters put up by the SP are being defaced and ripped apart by angry opponents.
The exit of an important leader, Beni Prasad Verma, who commands some influence among Kurmis in eastern UP may hurt the party, but will not wound it. Mulayam has retaliated by roping in RJD and BJP leaders. He has been strenuously trying to mobilize more support from the minorities, upper caste Hindus and Jats in western UP, from where he did not win many seats in the last election. To spoil the game for the Congress, the suspended former External Affairs Minister Natwar Singh and Rajya Sabha MP Obaidullah Azmi are campaigning for him on the plea of strengthening secular forces by opposing the BJP, which has revived the Ram temple issue to humour the Brahmins. The combined assault of rival forces and the official organs probing his corruption might force the Samajwadi Party to shed some seats, but it is expected to remain a major player.
Contrary to the impression given by her rivals, Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party has not seen any erosion of its strength and its constituency still remains intact. Mayawati has continued with the experiment of getting rid of the "Dalits only" label by fielding candidates belonging to all castes. The death of the party founder Kanshi Ram also has not given it a setback because Mayawati had built herself up as a leader to reckon with Kanshi Ram's backing. It was he who chose her as the chief ministerial candidate and designated political successor. The BSP polled 23.15 per cent vote in the 2002 elections winning 98 seats, the second highest after SP. The Party's growth has reached a saturation, though its image was somewhat dented when it formed a coalition government with the BJP which she has characterized as a Hindutva "Manuwadi" Party. But, being in the opposition to both the SP and BJP, she has regained her constituency and has been working hard to retain it.
In a show of political pragmatism, Mayawati has abandoned her "anti-tilak, tarazu and talwar" refrains against Brahmins, Banias and Rajputs and fielded 139 upper caste, 61 Muslims, 110 backward castes and 93-scheduled caste candidates. The intention is to expand the party constituency and try to exploit the possible anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling SP and spoil the game for the BJP. In case of a truncated verdict, she would place herself in a position to bargain with any party desperate to get into the seat of government by offering support to BSP.
The BJP polled only 20 per cent votes in 2002 winning 88 seats and is now desperately trying to improve upon its tally and emerge as the largest party if not gain a majority on its own. Owing to the inner bickering in the party and adverse reaction to the appointment of Raj Nath Singh as party's national president, the party is not as united as its Central leadership expects, despite RSS support. Former Chief Minister Kalyan Singh's return to the centre stage and campaigning by central leaders is expected to improve things together with the decision to put up youth leaders for more than one-third of the total seats, 100 first-timers and 20 women. This is expected to help the party's prospects, as will the division among the anti-BJP vote. The Party will, however, feel the absence of an alliance with Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal which had helped it pick of 33 seats from the western belt. Ajit Singh does not have the strength to win many seats on his own, but has the capability to tilt the balance in about 50 constituencies in favour or against any combination.
Another spoiler in the game appears to be the Fourth Front that includes V.P. Singh's Jan Morcha (102 seats), Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (21), Chandrasekhar's Samajwadi Janata Party (6) and United Democratic Front, a conglomerate of 18 Muslim organisations led by Yaqoob Qureshi, which is contesting 30 out of a total of 193 seats. The CPI has not formally joined the Front but is contesting 17 seats. The Congress refused to accept Ajit Singh's overtures as he was bargaining for a large number of seats from western UP. The Congress is desperately trying to make its presence felt in the State, keeping in mind the next Lok Sabha elections two years hence, with a good tally and does not want to dovetail its prospects with allies. It was felt that Ajit Singh would help himself to the Congress votes without giving anything in return.
The mother-son duo Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi have gone all out on the offensive to blast Mulayam Singh Yadav for his alleged failure on the law and order front criminalization of politics, the corruption issue and failure to secure the interests of the minorities. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has joined in by demanding a "modern and forward looking" leadership in UP which will invest in their future and not be held back by a leadership that only thinks about the past. Rahul is not overawed by Mulayam Singh and the challenge before him and is trying to demolish the BJP as well and has asked the youth to come forward to usher in a new era in politics, which is not personality-based. But, who will ultimately gain from a Samajwadi Party slide is difficult to predict but the inevitability of a coalition government once again taking over must be accepted.
