(1888PressRelease)
March 31, 2007 - The growing confrontation between Judiciary in Pakistan and army rulers led by Gen. Parvez Musharraf indicates that military rule which was tolerated in the past is losing its popular support and desire for restoration of democracy is growing stronger. The Pak General who is also the President has been doing a fine balancing act of hobnobbing with Islamist fundamentalists on one hand and riding the American band wagon for war against terrorism on the other.
The troubles for President Musharraf have been growing as he is finding it increasingly difficult to please both the lobbies and resentment against him is growing. While the tribals in North West Frontier province and Balochistan are annoyed with Pak General for his support to US forces, the American Congress and other agencies feel that General Musharraf is not doing enough to tackle the Al Qaeda which is finding safe hiding places in no man land on Afghan-Pak border.
This duplicity was problematic enough, but the Army has created fresh problems for it by going for removal of Chief Justice of Pakistan Supreme Court Iftihar Chaudhary. The result was that opposition parties in Pakistan suddenly found a cause which could prove to be a rallying point for all of them. In words of Aayaz Mir, a prominent column writer in Dawn, it was first time that judiciary had shown courage as in the past it has been endorsing the orders of the military rulers without close examination.
Upset by this turn of events which saw black coats that is members of the Pakistan bar leading the agitation instead of following and demanding end of army rule has raised hopes that undercurrent for democratic rule in Pakistan is strong. The coterie surrounding Pak General acted like all autocratic regimes by not only using strong arm tactics to suppress agitation but also started attacking the media. This clearly brought out the fact that General who had been boasting and trying to take credit for the fact that media was free in Pakistan has tried to clamp down on it at first indication of trouble.
This is not to suggest that General is on the way out but he would not find it easy to curb the judiciary, clamp down on media and at the same time get endorsement from everyone to remain the head of the State as well as chief of Army staff. There will be resistance in the Parliament and may be in the street as well as in the legal forums. General Musharraf after having lasted a full term is shaky enough not to be satisfied by holding one office only as he feels that at present he is riding a tiger and the moment he dismounts he may become the victim of the tiger.
This, however, has not prevented the Gen. Musharraf, a great survivor and one who can easily change tactics from trying hard to neutralize growing opposition against him. According to reports he has sent out feelers to Benazir Bhutto at present in exile to make it difficult for opposition to unite. He has also distanced himself from the ugly scenes witnessed in Islamabad in which the Chief Justice under suspension at present was manhandled by security forces who did not spare even his wife. But neither summons from Army house or strong arm tactics have worked so far.
At present the complaints against Chief Justice are being heard by judicial council headed by acting Chief Justice Rana Bhagwan Das. No early verdict is expected as judges would find it difficult to endorse the action by the Government and at the same difficult to turn against their own fraternity. As such one can say with certainty that in days to come problems for Pakistan President and Army Chief will multiply and he would find it more difficult to convince the masses that he alone should exercise power to save Pakistan. There are examples in plenty where Generals had to go after one term as army found that time has come to retire to the barracks as men at helm have become a liability instead of being described as saviours of the country.
As for India it will have to keep a close watch because uncertainty in Pakistan is not in the interest of the people of sub-continent. More so it will make it difficult to keep the peace process and on going talks with Pakistani leadership going. There is also a danger that with army moving out, the fundamentalists groups or hard core Islamists may assume power. The current mood in Pakistan is certainly anti-American despite generous pouring of money and weapons by them to bolster the regime of Gen. Musharraf.
Pak economy also is stronger and in better health at present but this would not win any points for General who has to choices before him either to quit gracefully or be ousted as his dependence on strong arm methods become more till they reach a breaking point. This will also spell trouble for India in border State of Jammu and Kashmir where the militants have been subdued to some extent with many groups seeking talks instead of confrontation including Hurriyat leaders.
One only hopes that present period of uncertainty will not be long and Pakistan will find a just and democratic solution to its problems.
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