New York, NY (1888PressRelease)
December 28, 2008 - The New York Investing meetup, which predicted that the current recession was beginning in December 2007 just as the economy was in fact turning down and Wall Street remained optimistic, has released the views on the 2009 economy that were delivered to its membership at its December 4th meeting. Tough times mixed with opportunity sums up the group’s outlook.
The New York Investing meetup not only predicted the recession last December in its annual outlook for the economy, but also that 2008 would be a year of government bailouts of failed financial firms, that there would be a continuing decline in real estate prices and that the credit crisis would spread to other consumer loans. The group also predicted that 2008 would be a bad year for the U.S. stock market last January. All predictions for 2008 were put on video and posted on You Tube at the beginning of the year.
“We are actually highly optimistic about the prospects for profitable investing in 2009” said the groups organizer, Daryl Montgomery. “You make the most money by buying assets when they are inexpensive and next year’s economy is going to lead to lots of opportunity in that respect”, he continued. So what does the group that has had more accurate predictions about the credit crisis than anyone else see happening with the economy next year?
1. It will be the year of global recession with all of the major economies of the world in simultaneous economic contractions including the U.S., the Eurozone, Great Britain, Japan, and China, as well as a number of smaller economies and emerging markets.
2. The U.S. recession deepens and becomes the longest in the post-War period.
3. U.S. unemployment increases toward and possibly exceeds double digits.
4. Large increases in the number of bankruptcies, especially among retailers, auto related companies, and small businesses. Significant increases in failures of small to medium sized banks.
5. More funds needed for already bailed out financial companies and new bailouts being needed for some marquee Wall Street names.
6. Federal bailouts needed for some states and municipalities.
7. Housing doesn’t recover and problems in commercial real estate deepen.
8. Consumer credit further restricted by lenders and late payments and defaults on
credit cards rise sharply.
9. The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates just above zero.
10. Worries about falling prices earlier in the year turn to worries about rising prices later in the year.
More detail and a complete list of predictions for the 2009 economy can be found on New York Investing’s website at: http://investing.meetup.com/21. The material will also be put on video and posted on You Tube before the beginning of the year.
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