(1888PressRelease)
April 12, 2007 - Initial reports of global warming indicate that 80 percent of the Himalayan glacial cover may melt in the next 25 to 30 years and leave India thirsting for water according to a UN climate panel report that was finalized in the first week of April 2007 at Brussels, has described the regional impact of rising temperatures and blamed emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels.
The initial reports prepared in draft form by an Intergovernmental panel on climate change under UN aegis had said the result would be melting of most of the Himalayan glaciers, by 2030 could be truly catastrophic for India and its neighbours.
Subsequent media reports from Brussels have indicated that after a marathon all night session that saw angry exchanges and debate between diplomats and scientists, the international global warming conference approved the major report on Friday 8 th April.
Conference chairman R. K. Pachauri told newsmen at the end of the conference that they had an approved accord and it has been a complex exercise. It is understood that several scientists had objected to the editing of the final draft by government negotiators, but in the end they had to agree to compromises.
However, it is understood some scientists on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change vowed never to take part in the process again. The final report of the group arrived at after five days of negotiations was reached when the delegates consisting of government representatives removed charts that highlighted devastating effects of climate change with every rise of 1.8 degrees F.
According to statistics available, as much as 70% of the world's fresh water is frozen in glaciers and the Himalayan glaciers are the largest store-house of water apart from the polar ice caps. They are also the source of water for seven great Asian rivers – Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra, Mekong, Salween, Yangste Kiang and Hwang Ho.
The initial reports had said glaciers are in probability are retreating at the rate of 10 to 15 meters per year.
The draft report summary had pointed out if current warming rates are maintained, Himalayan glaciers could decay at very rapid rates, shrinking from the present 500,000 sq. kms to 100,000 sq. kms by 2030.
The annual per capita availability of fresh water in India is expected to drop from around 1,900 cubic metres to 1000 cubic metres by 2025 due to population growth and climate changes, according to the draft report.
The first danger of the meltdown could very well be widespread floods. In a few decades it could be followed by irreversible droughts, threatening the livelihood of millions of people. This would mean unprecedented food shortages and also a massive water crisis – in India, China and Nepal.
The Gangetic basin alone is home to over 500 million people. It is feared that nearly 70% of the discharge into the Ganga is from rivers in Nepal, implying that if the Himalayan glaciers dry up, so will the Ganga, downstream in India.
According to glaciologist Syed Iqbal Hussain who has conducted extensive studies on Himalayan glaciers, has been quoted as saying that in some rivers the flow may go down as much 90%. Studies have also shown that the loss of glacial melt down water in the Ganga would mean reduction in the July-September flows by two-thirds, causing water shortages for 37 % of India's irrigated land.
The UN study also shows that 30 % of the variation in the global agricultural yields can be explained by temperature rise. With wheat, barley and maize being the three crops affected maximum due to temperature rise. India is the second largest producer of wheat and the fifth largest producer of maize in the world, is losing out a great deal because of global warming.
The report has said in recent weeks that for wheat barley and maize there is clearly a negative response of global yields for these three grains to increased temperatures. The figures of physical loss of productivity in agriculture must be calculated in tandem with studies that show that the economic impact of such changes are higher in developing and poor countries than in developed countries. Recent reports by media from UP give ample illustration of the miseries of farmers in the Banda and other districts of Uttar Pradesh where water shortage and unpaid bank loans are causing distress deaths along the region.
Closer home, in Delhi ten years and Rs. 500 crores later the Delhi government has finally realized the futility of cleaning the Yamuna. In fact the condition of the water has only deteriorated in this period, as pointed out by the report of the Comptroller and Auditor General of India.
The state government has only now proposed setting up a Yamuna River Development Authority (YRDA) that will override the problems of multiple agencies involved in cleaning the river. According to government officials the YRDA will ensure the formulation and execution of plans.
