(1888PressRelease)
May 14, 2007 - A study by Business Strategies, the economic consultancy arm of Experian, envisages that, given current levels of bad debt and inflation, debt write-off rates will reach 4.1 per cent by 2009 - even if the interest rate is left unchanged following the Bank of England's monetary policy committee meeting in May.
This would result in 38,900 repossessions a year - double the number compared with last year's total.
However, should interest rates be increased to 5.5 per cent by the MPC, Business Strategies foresees the debt write-off rate reaching 4.3 per cent by 2009 - which would see 42,700 families a year having their homes repossessed.
"Our analysis shows that we might not be that far away from record, or near record, highs for write-offs and repossessions," Neil Blake, managing director of global economic forecasting at Business Strategies, told the Guardian.
"Too big an increase to interest rates could easily push the economy over the edge, leading to a situation where consumers lose their appetite for spending and banks lose their appetite for lending growth altogether," he said.
"This is an outcome that is in nobody's interest, and one the MPC and industry will be working hard to avoid."
Director of UK property experts National Homebuyers Julian King adds: "Because of the huge volumes of people we have had contacting us worried about interest rates, we have been predicting since January 2006 that there would be a dramatic increase in repossession orders.
"We feel that this will have a huge negative effect on lending growth, property prices and spending."
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