(1888PressRelease)
March 16, 2007 - New Delhi, 15th March, 2007. - These demands probably cannot be met overnight and people get angry when ruling groups are unable to meet the commitments made by them. One can hope that knowing the mood of the public, the political parties will become more careful in making unrealistic promises on poll eve.
It is a result of false promises made that most of the State as well Government at the Centre become victims of incumbency factor when they seek election for a new term. Yet another factor to be noted is that marginal swings in poll percentage make big difference in the number of seats that a party is able to win. The best course for a political party under the circumstances is to seek more allies with a view to expands their base.
In this search, parties with limited but committed vote bank become most sought after for alliances.
This is becoming more and more obvious in the coming elections in Uttar Pradesh, which can have serious implications not only for the State but also at the Centre because of large number of Parliament members elected by them. Every faction is trying hard to pick up allies and lead has been taken in this matter by BJP, which has come to an understanding with Janata Dal (United) and Apna Dal. The efforts by other groups are hectic as they feel that they are racing against time.
The Congress Party, which is aware of its shortcomings because it lacks an organizational base, is counting on other members of Jan Morcha led by former Prime Minister V. P. Singh to bail them out. The Morcha, which has been in the forefront by launching direct attack on Mulayam Singh, has so far been able to rope in Ajith Singh of Rashtriya Lok Dal, CPI and some smaller groups. They, however, have to overcome the disadvantage of not having an organization at ground level, which is necessary for turning goodwill for leaders into votes.
The present Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav has also been looking for allies not so much for helping him politically but to overcome the general impression that he stands isolated. In this race after having lost an ally like Ajit Singh and having failed to persuade CPI-M to join hands with him.
He is trying to tie knots with individuals in the minority camp like Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid in Delhi and others. But his major emphasis has been on the propaganda front where he is making big splash with Bollywood mega star Amitabh Bacchan seeking votes on his behalf. How much the star appeal works in UP will be known only after the polls, as so far in the North film stars are good for attracting crowds but lacks ability to get votes.
From all indication it appears that the State will give a fractured verdict as was the case in the last election and a fresh exercise will start after the poll to rope in new allies to get a workable majority in the Assembly. The exercise after the poll will be far removed from talks of any principles but will be based on ability to swing numbers. Such an understanding may see groups, which have joined hands for fighting elections breaking up and joining new formations. Indications are three major groups that is Mulayam led SP, BJP and BSP will not like to seek support from any of the major players. But this will not prevent them from going for poaching to get members from within to build a majority. In such an exercise one will find the defection law as well as the role of State Governor becoming a determining factor.
The Election Commission also will face of lot of difficulties in ensuring a fair poll in the State where the electorate has been badly divided on basis of religion, caste and other considerations. Recent violence in Gorakhpur where the Member of Parliament from that constituency was involved is an indication of type of conflicts they may arise.
The Election Commission has become active by holding elections in a phased manner so that officials and security services are present in strength at the time of polling. They are also seeking transfers of some key officials. The task is not easy as the bureaucrats at lower levels like Station House Officers and Tehsildars also get postings on the basis of their commitment to political groups and considers elections as time to pay up and deliver votes.
Indian electorate has generally a reputation for giving a decisive mandate, but it is doubtful if this will hold good in coming elections in Uttar Pradesh.
In view of the growing concern and uncertainty about the outcome of poll in U.P, the demand for bifurcation of state to ensure better governance and more representative form of Government is likely to gain currency again.
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