(1888PressRelease)
September 19, 2007 - The Bank of England’s Governor King alluded to the situation being akin to a ‘run on the banks’. Specifically he was referring to the situation whereby major banks are withholding funding in the asset backed commercial paper market. LIBOR, the rate at which banks are willing to lend to each other rose to a nine year peak last week. The three month lending rate at one point rose to more than 100 base points above the
Bank of England’s target rate.
The bank of England eased the situation somewhat by relaxing restrictions on
the amount of money financial institutions need to hold with the central
bank, encouraging them to lend more to each other. Libor dropped for the
third straight day on Friday, but overnight on Thursday there was a severe
reminder of just why banks were being so wary in lending to each other.
Northern Rock’s fresh profit warning and surprise move to tap the BoE for
emergency funding spooked investors further.
Governor King predicted that banks would move to the more traditional model of
funding lending through deposits. As a reflection of this, some banks have
increased the interest offered in their deposit accounts, but at the same
time have increased the rates charged to mortgage borrowers.
The BoE hinted that if the situation worsens it may act with an interest rate
cut. Until then, with borrowers being hit with a de facto rate hike, it may
not be long before the credit crisis expands to the wider economy. We will
know more about this next week with the minutes from the last MPC meeting
being released on Wednesday and retail sales data on Thursday.
Tuesday 18th of September 18.15 GMT sees one of the most important FOMC
interest rate statements in recent history. It is likely that markets will
grind to a halt coming into the decision and then unwind like a coiled spring
on the announcement. The US Federal reserve has come under intensive pressure
from Wall Street to cut rates to ease the credit crisis.
Yet it is not an easy decision to make, the US housing market has been in
severe decline for a while and householders at the thick end of the sub prime
crisis will no doubt be grateful for a rate cut. On the other hand
inflationary pressures do remain. Oil continues to surge to record highs and
commodities such as wheat have risen spectacularly in recent months. The
latter even prompted a ‘pasta protest’ in Italy, with Italians calling for
the government to do something about the spiraling cost of the national dish.
Wednesday’s US housing starts data and Bernake’s speech on Thursday will both
influence an excited market post rate decision.
Traders at Betonmarkets.com believes that predicting the market in the short
term is near impossible as it so much depends on the US rate decision and
accompanying statement next week. The quarter point cut is the more likely
option for the moment, but even if this is how it pans out, the potential for
another cut at future meetings will be equally market moving. If you were
willing to trade in the face of so much uncertainty, a volatility play may be
the better option with markets expected to move considerably on Tuesdays
announcement in the US. A 14 day up or down trade trades returns around 10%
on the S&P 500 with the triggers set as 1420 and 1525. If the market touches
either of these levels within the next 14 days you win.
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