(1888PressRelease)
March 27, 2007 - New Delhi, 26th March, 2007. The continued insistence of military rulers on forcing a military solution to growing insurgency in Balochistan – Pakistan's largest and also the poorest province – and giving freedom to Al Qaeda and Taliban forces to mount attacks inside Afghanistan present a scary scenario. Ceaseless bombing of Balochistan Liberation Army fighters, large-scale disappearances of political activists, neglect of economic development and suppression of political activity and human rights have contributed to a situation of instability. This could have unforeseen consequences for the stability of Pakistan itself.
The situation could become more critical if the Americans intensify their activities from the facilities available to them in Pakistan and a situation of conflict with Iran develops. The US not only wants Taliban and Al Qaeda bases in Balochistan to be liquidated to prevent attacks on NATO forces operating in the southern Afghan provinces, but also that Islamabad should play a more active role in isolating Iran by helping distance the regional Islamic states from Tehran as much as possible. Obviously, Washington has made Gen. Pervez Musharraf believe that an Iranian nuclear bomb would help Tehran dominate the region that contains 700 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and produces 21 million barrels daily.
With Pakistan's help, an anti-Iran alliance of countries is fast shaping up. Nations opposed to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, including Egypt, Turkey, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and UAE, signed up with the US on January 16 to take on Iran. Pakistan also signed up on January 16 to do the same. After US Vice-President Dick Cheney's visit, Musharraf called a conference of foreign ministers of six of these countries to discuss Iran and ostensibly to firm up the anti-nuke alliance. This has activated alarm signals in Iran, which is now reassessing its relations with Pakistan.
Strategically located and bordering Iran and Afghanistan, Balochistan has been simmering with discontent ever since its forcible annexation by the Pakistan Army on April 1, 1948 subsequent to the partition of the Indian sub-continent. Several revolts by Baloch nationalists demanding political and economic rights and end of their exploitation by Islamabad were ruthlessly crushed by the Pakistan Army, inflicting thousands of casualties on the civilian population. In the current military operation, which began last year, a leading Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Bugti was brutally assassinated by the Pakistan Army and thousands of his supporters arrested and jailed.
The US used the province by organizing Al Qaeda and Taliban militias and arming them to invade Afghanistan and throw out Soviet forces. Iran fears that the Taliban and Al Qaeda forces, professing the Sunni faith, are now preparing to mount attacks on it. This, obviously, is motivated by a feeling of revenge against Iran's direct support to extremist Shia outfits in Iraq, which are killing Sunnis, and to Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iranian leaders have blamed Pakistan for allowing Sunni terrorist groups to raid Iran and a formal protest through diplomatic channels has been launched. As a defensive measure Tehran is now constructing a 700 km, 3-meter high wall on its border with Pakistan to prevent extremist groups, drugs and arms smugglers and other undesirable elements from entering its territory. US think tanks are showing an unusual interest in ethnic fault lines in Iran by trying to bring together Baloch, Kurdish, Azeri and Turkmen minorities on a common platform.
Pakistan's relations with China remain strong, having helped it to get the nuclear bomb and huge quantities of arms and fighter aircraft, part gift and part at throwaway prices. The intention has been to strengthen Pakistan's military potential to balance India and counter its growing influence. China is also exploiting Balochistan's mineral wealth and investing heavily in developing the Gwadar port to provide another outlet for its trade to the Gulf region and Africa. The port is already connected to the Karakoram Highway which China built through Gilgit to ferry military hardware to Pakistan, besides merchandise. The nationalist Wattan Party of Balochistan, on whose petition the Supreme Court had earlier scrapped the privatization of the Pakistan Steel Mills, has challenged in the apex court awarding of the contract for Gwadar port to a China-backed Singaporean company on a 40-year lease. The move would threaten national security as the port was of vast strategic importance to Pakistan, being located just 70 kilometers east of the Iranian border.
China has bankrolled 80 per cent of the project, some $248 million as its initial cost. The Singapore Port Authority would invest only $550 million in the next five years and $110 million yearly thereafter. The rest of the investment of about $30 billion would come from port earnings, with most of the profits transferred out of the country. The petitioner contends that Pakistani engineers manning Karachi and Qasim ports have the capability to run Gwadar and has demanded cancellation of the contract. The military government had lowered the requirement of a draft of 14.5 meters to 11.5 meters at the time of bidding in order to block other bidders and award the contract to the Chinese-backed company. Though it is not publicly stated, China intends to build the port also as a base for use of its Navy, which would patrol the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea and also monitor traffic via the Gulf through which nearly half of the world's oil supplies pass.
A Chinese naval base so close to the Iranian border would cause concern to Iranians, particularly after deterioration in its relations with Pakistan. Its own Bundar Abbas port would feel threatened. Presently, India uses the port for transport of its goods to Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia because Pakistan continues to refuse transit through its territory to Afghanistan and beyond. With the US and China getting active near its southern border, Iran obviously feel worried.
For all its folly, Pakistan is now finding scapegoats for the rebellion in Balochistan and is pointing a finger also at India. The baseless and laughable allegations, made during the first-ever meeting of the India-Pakistan Anti-terrorism Working Group, are meant to counter the Indian charge of continuing Pakistani support to terrorist activities inside India. Conspiracy theories have been articulated about Iranian and Indian interest. Iran too has now joined India in blaming Pakistan for allowing terror groups to enter its territory and commit criminal acts. Think-tanks, such as International Crisis Group, also have ridiculed Pakistani charge of Indian involvement in the rebellion in Balochistan. It says India's capacity to help the rebels is "extremely limited."
After all, a Balochistan that spins out of control "would not serve India's interests." In Pakistan's history whoever has demanded autonomy for Balochistan has been labeled anti-Pakistan and anti-Islam. They have been called saboteurs, Indian agents and anarchists, all convenient tags to discredit the nationalists demanding democracy, human rights, autonomy, economic development and end of federalism and military dictatorship. The Balochistan Liberation Army has taken up arms against the occupying Pakistani Army and demands outright independence since their autonomy and other demands have not been conceded for half-a-century. The present Khan of Kalat Mir Ahmed Suleiman is to file a case against the Pakistan Government for violating the treaty signed with his grandfather in 1948 limiting Balochistan's accession to only three subjects, defence, foreign affairs and communications. He will approach the International Court of Justice at the Hague to demand annulment of the Treaty.
Pakistan has refused to concede the legitimate demands of the Baloch people, and has used its army repeatedly to crush them. Balochistan is the most backward and poor province of Pakistan; its gas is used to run industries in Punjab but it not available to the local people and the income generated from exploitation of its mineral wealth is taken away. The incidence of unemployment and illiteracy are quite high. The Balochis allege that the Gwadar port is only providing employment to people brought from Punjab and NWFP, whether workers or land-developers, and the locals are completely left out. It is such crass exploitation which they want to end.
It is natural that interested external powers take advantage of the disturbed conditions in Balochistan to further their strategic interests with the connivance of the military regime in Islamabad. By and large the Baloch people have not been fully integrated and accepted within Pakistani society.
Nearly 3000 persons, mostly young men, including President of the late Akbar Bugti's Wattan Party, have gone missing, presumably picked up by the security forces. The situation would lead to dismemberment, violent sectarianism and proliferation of Al Qaeda and Taliban fighters and have disastrous repercussions for Pakistan if Balochistan is sucked into a new great game to redraw the map of the region.
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